20 February 2012

Arab Spring : Nuclear Winter?

As the international tensions over Iran's alleged nuclear ambitions ratchet up, I'm reduced to asking dumb questions like: if they're developing a nuclear weapon, what on earth do they think they are going to do with it? If they're not, WTF has the IAEA and the west and the Israelis have to gain by turning up the heat? Does Iran think that one nuclear bomb will do the trick and they can avoid, somehow, the inevitability of Israel turning Iran into a big radioactive sandpit in reprisal? Why does Iran block moves towards the creation of a Palestinian state if not for the reason that it cannot and will not ever allow the legitimation of a state of Israel? Does Israel feel that the Arab spring will turn into an Islamic summer with hardline theocracies emerging in Egypt and Syria and a return of Arab ambitions to destroy the state of Israel? If Israel decides to strike unilaterally this spring will the US and the UK decide it's in their best interests to join in? Are the American religious right about to hurry it all along because the 'end times' are taking just too damn long for their liking?

I expect the fruit loops on the left will have invented a new disease called 'Iranophobia' before too long. The symptoms will be uncontrollable twitchiness at the sight of nuclear facilities buried hundreds of feet inside mountains surrounded by sophisticated air defence systems. All you would expect to see in a civil nuclear program really.

The rationalists in Iran must find all this political and theological lunacy and military brinkmanship unbearable. I hope their Arab spring doesn't become a nuclear winter. Is it wishful thinking to dream there is any way out of this mess that doesn't involve violence?

see also: On War and Morality

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